"Maybe Makona was the result of passaging experiments on a more inlying ZEBOV strain."
Some time ago I had a look at the origin of Makona. I'm very open-minded to such a possibility, but had to conclude there was no way it could have been derived from any known (*published) strain - no matter how many passages. I lean towards a scenario in which the pathogen discovery side of the Kenema lab (Metabiota) perhaps brought something novel back from a Congo expedition.
Maybe there is something to garnered through FOIA?
When I read a lot of the pre-makona literature for this series, I was struck by how quickly and excitedly new discoveries were published. Granted it's an amateurish impression, but I think the people in this area recognize there's prestige to be won for bringing in a key genome that completes the very strange and incomplete picture of ebola phylogenetics.
In other words, I don't think it's particularly credible there was some secret strain that leaked.
A few months ago, I FOIA'ed Eric Lander's relevant comms from this period. Part IV might consist of my publishing those comms if Obama's library ever gets back to me.
That might depend on the need for secrecy if it was military work.
There was a project under Sina Bavari at USAMRIID to establish a standard viral stock that would be used for testing therapeutics etc. They did serial passages in cell culture and primates. Only a few passages, but it gives an idea about the number of mutations to expect. It didn't seem anywhere like enough to account for the divergence of Makona - even if repeated 10 times over.
A very interesting series, hope to see a Part IV.
"Maybe Makona was the result of passaging experiments on a more inlying ZEBOV strain."
Some time ago I had a look at the origin of Makona. I'm very open-minded to such a possibility, but had to conclude there was no way it could have been derived from any known (*published) strain - no matter how many passages. I lean towards a scenario in which the pathogen discovery side of the Kenema lab (Metabiota) perhaps brought something novel back from a Congo expedition.
Maybe there is something to garnered through FOIA?
When I read a lot of the pre-makona literature for this series, I was struck by how quickly and excitedly new discoveries were published. Granted it's an amateurish impression, but I think the people in this area recognize there's prestige to be won for bringing in a key genome that completes the very strange and incomplete picture of ebola phylogenetics.
In other words, I don't think it's particularly credible there was some secret strain that leaked.
A few months ago, I FOIA'ed Eric Lander's relevant comms from this period. Part IV might consist of my publishing those comms if Obama's library ever gets back to me.
That might depend on the need for secrecy if it was military work.
There was a project under Sina Bavari at USAMRIID to establish a standard viral stock that would be used for testing therapeutics etc. They did serial passages in cell culture and primates. Only a few passages, but it gives an idea about the number of mutations to expect. It didn't seem anywhere like enough to account for the divergence of Makona - even if repeated 10 times over.
But perhaps someone repeated it 100 times over?
That’s interesting, and I had not looked into that. Passaging progress could be dependent on many factors, but I agree it’s a stretch.
very interesting, you know too much, and you write well.